Would defeat for the Voice be the end for Albanese? Not on these numbers

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Would defeat for the Voice be the end for Albanese? Not on these numbers
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An exclusive survey shows that voters can reject the Voice and turn against Peter Dutton at the same time.

when Anthony Albanese assures them the Indigenous Voice is only a “modest request” to change the Constitution because many believe it is a big change they cannot support.

Labor has increased its primary vote from 36 to 37 per cent over the past month and the Coalition has tumbled from 34 to 31 per cent, so the aversion to the Voice is yet to trigger a craving for the conservatives. Could the shift in support help Albanese rescue the Voice? This looks highly unlikely on the numbers revealed in this Resolve Political Monitor, which used a very large number of respondents to produce results with greater precision than standard monthly surveys.While voters have given the first sign in more than six months that they can step across the line to supporting the Yes case, the movement is too feeble to suggest a victory on Saturday.

“To get to 50 per cent nationally, the Yes camp need to retain all of the 10 per cent soft vote on their side, which they have been unable to do to date, and then win over two-thirds of the 9 per cent soft vote on the No side,” Resolve director Jim Reed says. Whatever the result, the recriminations over the referendum will continue long after the ballots are counted.

The Liberals clearly hope to defeat the Voice, maximise pressure on Albanese and drive Labor out of power or into minority government at the next election. The latest survey, however, shows that voters can reject the Voice and turn against Dutton at the same time.The challenge for the Yes case is clear in this latest survey. While 95 per cent of respondents are aware of the Voice, 57 per cent say they struggle to explain it.

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