The Pac-12 could dissolve this fall, at the end of the decade or in the 2030s.
Jon Wilner The San Jose Mercury News As Pac-12 teams prepare for Week 2, the existential clock approaches zero hour.
On the surface, nothing has changed since June 30, when the Bruins and Trojans announced their departures for the Big Ten in 2024. Nobody else has left the conference; nobody has joined the conference; no contracts have been signed. But is the next move coming this fall? Or toward the end of its next media rights contract cycle? Or not until the mid 2030s?
Why? Perhaps he views the creation of a Western Division purely as a legacy play, a means of escaping former commissioner Jim Delany’s ever-present shadow. Perhaps Warren is wholly convinced a 20-team conference would best serve his membership. Either way, he doesn’t make the final decision — the Big Ten presidents run the show.
Perhaps in two weeks, perhaps in four or six, Kliavkoff places a contract offer on the table with ESPN as the primary, and perhaps exclusive media partner. The four schools with Big Ten aspirations turn to Warren for a definitive decision, and they are told the door is closed, for now. Unlike the Big Ten, the SEC isn’t actively considering expansion — it’s perfectly content as a 16-team conference with Oklahoma and Texas. But by the end of the decade, the strategy shifts.
They see the revenue flowing into the Big Ten after it signs yet another media rights deal — this one worth more than $2 billion annually due to the ever-increasing value of live sports and the additions of the four West Coast schools.Much like the Pac-12, the ACC shatters. Whether the Big 12 ends up with 20 or 24 members, we aren’t sure. And it might not include the same core that exists today. The league could dissolve and reform, perhaps without some current members, perhaps with a new name.
The expansion of the playoff to 12 teams will prove to be the most profound change in the history of college football, with one exception: The 1984 Supreme Court ruling that ended the NCAA’s grip on media rights and allowed conferences to cut their own deals.
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