Arctic could be ice-free a decade earlier than thought NatureComms
but most previous studies have focused on September when the largest change occurred. Considering all calendar months and utilizing individual forcing simulations, this study finds that the response to GHG increases is detected throughout the year, explaining most of the observed SIA reduction.
The residual GHG distribution obtained by All–AER–NAT is displayed. SIA anomalies are obtained by computing non-overlapping 3-year averages relative to the 1979–2019 means. ALL runs are extended by using Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 scenario runs since 2015.The temporal evolution patterns of ALL simulations are overall consistent with those observed, capturing year-round significant melting and the strongest melting during September–October.
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