When Chair Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials gather this week for their latest decision on interest rates, they will do so on the cusp of achieving an elusive “soft landing” — the feat of curbing inflation without causing a deep recession.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, June 14, 2023, at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington.
Even economists at Deutsche Bank, among the first large banks to forecast a recession, have been encouraged by the economy’s direction, though they still expect a downturn later this year. At the same time, inflation has steadily declined. In June, prices rose just 3% from a year earlier, down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 though still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Likewise, Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said she favored a rate hike at last month’s meeting, when the Fed kept rates unchanged after 10 straight increases. Speaking before the latest inflation report, Logan suggested that more increases were needed.
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