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The research argues that rising heat could challenge the limits of human habitability. - Photo: EPA BANGKOK: Thailand could face extreme heat conditions comparable to those seen today in the Sahara by 2070, according to a growing body of climate research that suggests global warming is steadily pushing parts of the world beyond the temperature range in which human societies have historically flourished.
The warning was highlighted by director of the Climate Connectors programme Tara Buakamsri in discussing Owen Mulhern’s article Too-Hot-to-Live-In and the influential 2020 study Future Of The Human Climate Niche by Xu and colleagues. The research argues that rising heat could challenge the limits of human habitability, especially as 19 of the 20 hottest years on record had occurred since 2001 at the time the article referenced the broader trend.
At the heart of the study is the idea of a “human climate niche”, the relatively narrow temperature band in which human populations have largely evolved, settled and built civilisations over thousands of years. According to the paper, the main concentration of human populations historically clustered around a mean annual temperature of roughly 11 deg C to 15 deg C. Many people today already live in places warmer than that historical range, but still within conditions to which societies can broadly adapt. The concern is what happens when the mean annual temperature rises above 29 deg C.
The study says such conditions are currently found on only about 0.8 per cent of the Earth’s land surface, mostly in the Sahara. Yet under a high-emissions scenario, that zone could expand dramatically and expose roughly one-third of the world’s population to heat levels now seen in only a handful of places. For Thailand, the implications are deeply unsettling. The country’s current mean annual temperature is already about 26 deg C, high enough to place it close to the danger zone.
Climate projections cited in the discussion suggest that by the end of the century, Thailand could cross that 29 deg C threshold, pushing average conditions towards levels now associated with desert climates. This would not simply mean hotter days. It would imply a structural shift into a climate regime far less compatible with the conditions in which human life and economic activity have traditionally prospered.
The signs are already visible. From March to May each year, Thailand routinely endures temperatures above 40 deg C. During the severe 2016 heatwave, NASA Earth Observatory reported that land surface temperatures in parts of Thailand were as much as 12 deg C above average. It also noted that more than 50 towns and cities matched or broke daily records, while Mae Hong Son recorded 44.6 deg C on April 28, 2016, then the highest air temperature ever observed in Thailand. What is even more alarming is the prospect that tomorrow’s “mild” heatwaves may be as intense as today’s most dangerous ones. In that future, extreme heat would no longer be seen as an abnormal event. It would become part of everyday life.
Rising heat directly affects health, labour productivity, agriculture and food security. Higher temperatures increase the risk of heart disease, respiratory illness and infectious disease, while the greatest burden falls on vulnerable groups such as low-income households, older people and outdoor workers. Rural communities are especially exposed because they often have less access to air conditioning and other cooling systems. Excessive heat reduces the efficiency of outdoor work, cuts crop yields and increases electricity demand for cooling. That in turn can reinforce the climate crisis itself if power generation remains dependent on fossil fuels. Heat, in other words, is not only a public health threat but also a long-term drag on growth, inequality and national resilience.
Air conditioning is often raised as a survival strategy, but that alone is unlikely to solve the problem. Expanding cooling access across an entire country would require vast new energy infrastructure, while overreliance on air conditioners could worsen emissions if the underlying energy mix is not cleaned up. It is a form of adaptation, but one that risks deepening the crisis if it is not paired with systemic reform. In Thailand, it is intertwined with intensifying drought, more frequent and more destructive flooding, and rising sea levels that threaten coastal communities and major economic zones. These are not isolated pressures but overlapping climate risks that make adaptation more difficult and more expensive.It is about whether Thailand can redesign its cities, energy systems, public health capacity and economic model quickly enough to remain resilient in a far harsher climate.
The transition to a low-carbon economy will require major investment, long-term planning and political resolve.The prospect of Thailand becoming as hot as the Sahara is not an unavoidable destiny but a warning about the consequences of decisions made today. If greenhouse gas emissions remain high, the space in which humans can live and work safely will continue to shrink, and tropical countries such as Thailand will be on the front line. But if emissions can be cut rapidly, adaptation accelerated and development rethought around a hotter world, the worst outcomes can still be limited. In the end, the heat crisis is not only an environmental issue. It is a question about the future of human life itself and whether the places that have sustained civilisation can continue to do so as that line grows fainter with each passing year. - The Nation/ANN
Climate Change Extreme Heat Sahara Temperatures Global Warming Human Climate Niche High-Emissions Scenario Desert Climate Adaptation Strategies Public Health Threat Low-Carbon Economy
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