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ORLANDO, Florida, June 4 - Of all the economic rules of thumb the COVID-19 pandemic seemingly ripped up, few have caused as much soul-searching as the inverted U.S. yield curve - though it may just be interpreted incorrectly.
But the problem is timing the turn. In the 19 months since the 3-month/10-year curve and 23 months since the"2s/10s" curve last inverted, respectively, recession is still nowhere to be seen and there is very little sign of it on the horizon. Once the U.S. central bank starts cutting rates and the curve"bull steepens," recession is much closer at hand.
When the yield curve steepens and slopes normally again, will these market dynamics hold up? In a counter-intuitive way, a persistently inverted curve suggests the economy is in decent shape and the Fed doesn't need to slash rates.
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