After weeks of closed-door testimony, public impeachment proceedings against President Trump will begin Wednesday. But will they change public opinion?
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History suggests the answer lies in whether the televised phase of Trump’s impeachment process ends up looking more like Richard Nixon’s or Bill Clinton’s. A majority of Americans have favored the process all along; the latest FiveThirtyEight average is 51 percent who support it versus 42.8 percent who are opposed. But the share of the public that supports impeaching and/or removing Trump — the former would require a majority vote in the House; the latter would require a two-thirds vote in the Senate — has been significantly lower. As of today, for instance, only 47.2 percent support impeaching and/or removing Trump; 45 percent are opposed.
The more Americans learned, the more they turned against the president. In June 1973, right after the televised hearings began, only 19 percent of Americans told Gallup that Nixon should be impeached and removed from office. By November, after the so-called Saturday Night Massacre, that number had ticked up to 38 percent. Over the same period, Nixon’s approval rating fell from 45 percent to 27 percent. He never recovered, and he resigned the following August.
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