Will 2020 be another blue wave election year? The FiveThirtyEight politics team discusses:
the state’s presidential result in 2016. True, Colorado and Maine, which currently have two GOP senators up for reelection, lean slightly Democratic, but states like Georgia, Iowa and Montana lean toward the GOP. That’s true of Arizona and North Carolina, too, to a lesser extent.Sure, but Democrats could easily win the Senate even if every state once again votes the same way for president and Senate. It’s quite possible that Biden will carry Maine, Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina.
The polls right now are reasonably meaningful, but because presidential elections are just close by their nature these days, even a marginal shift could alter the outcome — and there would be down-ballot ramifications for such a shift. So yeah, let’s see where things are in the fall., a normal polling error for a presidential general election is 4 points.
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