Why the chances of a government shutdown this fall are already on the rise

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Why the chances of a government shutdown this fall are already on the rise
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If anyone thought that the recent debt ceiling deal would mean any sort of reprieve from government spending brinkmanship, a deal cut by Kevin McCarthy has disabused those hopes. Here's more.

The move all but guarantees that partisan spending fights will continue to be Capitol Hill’s main output in 2023, with Democrats immediately rejecting the idea and pledging to block it.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro said the recently enacted debt ceiling deal provided "a path to funding the United States government on time” and with minimal drama. But she quickly added that the path appears to be gone now, saying if McCarthy persists and "we disregard the law of the land, we all but guarantee a shutdown in October."

Granger has said the Republican move is entirely legitimate and that the debt ceiling deal simply set “a ceiling, not a floor” on spending levels as Democrats on the panel like DeLauro have howled in protest. "The financial markets will have to watch this one," wrote Greg Valliere, the chief U.S. Policy Strategist at AGF Investments, in a note to clients this week of the drama to come.

The political risk here, however, "is not currently priced into the markets" and could become much more front and center to investors and the economy in the fall if there are no signs of compromise on the horizon, he added.

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