Elon Musk said Tesla plans to launch an autonomous ride-hailing service in the US by the end of next year:
, it identified AVs as a key area of future growth, but it did not offer any specifics on a ride-hailing service, negating the possibility of a 2019 launch.We believe Tesla is unlikely to meet its goal of launching an autonomous ride-hailing service by the end of next year.
The first barrier is Tesla's AV technology. The company has eschewed LiDAR sensors, a 3D image-sensing technology that enables AVs to see the world around them, in favor of cameras and radar to help its AVs navigate.in the industry: LiDAR is considered superior in gauging the size and distance of objects in motion, which is essential to safe AV operation.
Beyond technical limitations, Tesla could run into legal impediments — Musk noted several times during Autonomy Day that Tesla's AV ride-hailing service will require approval from the federal government. However, there currently aren't any federal laws or regulations governing AVs, just a series of non-binding regulations.
Instead, there's a myriad of state and local regulations Tesla will likely need to comply with. Navigating such regulations will be a large and time-consuming task. In sum, Tesla's Autonomy Day raised more questions than answers, making us doubtful that Tesla Network will be introduced by next year."I don't believe for a second this is going to work in the next 18 months but I could imagine this strategy getting Tesla to full autonomy in ~5 years.
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