Republicans could make inroads in these Southern California districts — in part because they aren’t necessarily as blue as they seem based on the 2020 presidential vote alone. More, via FiveThirtyEight:
, and considering he ran 10 points ahead of Trump in 2020, it’s not as surprising he has an edge in this blue-leaning district. Moreover, there’ve been other signs Garcia is well-positioned, including the recent decision by major outside Democratic groupsDemocrats have also hoped to make inroads against Kim, Steel and even longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, but each race is rated at least likely Republican in our forecast.
All in all, Democrats are on the defensive in Southern California. And while their most endangered incumbents are running in blue-leaning districts, the Republican-leaning national political environment and the tendency for some voters in this region to vote Republican down-ballot may give the GOP the chance to make further gains in the region.
Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall.
Based on an analysis of the two-party vote for president and House in 178 districts with Democratic incumbents running that had House candidates from both parties who combined to win at least 95 percent of the vote.Compared with the old 25th District, the seat’s previous number.
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