One reason is that many African-Americans are leaving the city
RAHM EMANUEL, who is poised to retire as Chicago’s mayor, recently bragged that on his watch the population of America’s third-largest city had grown. “It is up by about 30,000 in my tenure,” he said. That is a trifling increase for a city with 2.7m residents, but is at least a welcome sign of stability after decades of decline. In the decade to 2010 Chicago lost some 20,000 residents every year.
It is also the case that Chicago is mostly losing poorer residents who are overwhelmingly African-American, while it gains or maintains its population of higher-skilled people, whites and Asians especially. More prosperous residents appear most likely to remain in Chicago, while less-educated and poorer ones tend to move out. As Rob Paral, a Chicago-based demographer, points out: “without the decline in African-Americans, the city population would be stable or growing”.
The exodus of black Americans has not yet bottomed out and may not do so for years to come. But even counting this steady flight of from Chicago, Illinois is not exceptional for the outflow of its people. Mr Hertz says that Illinois is akin to New Jersey or Arizona, for example. What really matters, he says, is how the state no longer draws in enough newcomers to compensate for the outflow: Illinois is exceptional in failing to bring in enough new migrants.
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