The count is always contentious because it confers money and power
IN ETHIOPIA, Africa’s second most populous country, it is often difficult to distinguish politics from demography. On March 18th the government announced that the national census, due to begin one and a half years behind schedule on April 7th, would be postponed for a third time. It said that security concerns, especially in the south and west, made holding one almost impossible.
The third, in 2007, was delayed because of unrest following disputed national elections two years earlier. The results of that count were questioned by leaders among the Amharas, the second largest ethnic group, who claimed that their people were undercounted by as many as 3m of about 20m. Questions over numbers are particularly sensitive given a shift in power within the EPRDF, which had long been dominated by Tigrayans, who make up only about 6% of the population. Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister, was swept to power a year ago on the back of rising discontent among members of the Oromo ethnicity, which makes up between one-third and, according to some Oromo activists, one-half of the population.
Ethnic politics are also turning violent, at times. Activists from the Sidama tribe who are demanding the establishment of their own region forced some 2,500 people of other ethnicities from their homes in Hawassa last June. In Oromia almost 1m ethnic Gedeos were chased from their homes last year. This act of ethnic cleansing was fuelled in part by a belief among Oromos that Gedeos had become the largest ethnic group in the area and planned to annex it from Oromia.
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