Northern Ireland's incarceration rate is closer to that of Norway and Sweden than it is to the rest of the UK
Three factors help explain the gap. The first is a gulf in crime rates. Surveys suggest Northern Irish people are a little more than half as likely to fall victim to crime as those in England and Wales. Some think the higher number of cops relative to population in the province has a deterrent effect. Others, including Mr Treacy, point to the lack of big cities, which tend to have concentrations of crime.
Second, the Northern Irish system is better at deterring prisoners from reoffending once they are released. On March 28th Dame Glenys Stacey, the chief inspector of probation in England and Wales, concluded that the part-privatisation of its system in 2014 was “irredeemably flawed”. All of the 10 private probation firms inspected last year were given the lowest two of four grades. By contrast Northern Ireland kept its unified, public-sector system.
The final explanation is historical—and disturbing. During the Troubles, paramilitaries ran a shadow justice system to police their neighbourhoods. Their influence is waning but they still enforce a strict “moral code” in some working-class districts, says John Topping of Queen’s University Belfast. Several dozen “punishment assaults” are recorded by police every year, to enforce drug debts but also for suspected criminal offences that may otherwise be reported to the police.
In an attempt to end this violence, the state licenses grassroots alternatives to the justice system. One group, Community Restorative Justice Ireland, is run by Harry Maguire, a Republican who served ten years in jail for his part in the murder of two British soldiers. It claims to handle 1,700 or so disputes a year, mostly between Republicans. It refers serious crimes to the police, but otherwise mediates between parties involved in low-level wrongdoing or to prevent family feuds escalating.
The groups break cycles of offending and keep young people in particular out of prison, says Phil Scraton, also of Queen’s. As they are subject to inspection, they offer a more legitimate form of informal justice, argues David Ford, a former justice minister at Stormont. But their sectarian nature means they are hardly ideal models. “Would you do it in England and Wales? Probably not,” Mr Ford admits.
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