Trump, once again, appears to be an exception to political rules. But this time, it doesn't seem to be in his favor. (via MaddowBlog)
, Hillary Clinton was practically a lock for the Democratic nomination, and Rudy Giuliani enjoyed big leads in nearly all national GOP polling., Donald Trump was so far from the GOP’s radar that he wasn’t even included in surveys.
The point, of course, is that two years is practically a lifetime in presidential polling, and political conditions invariably change — usually several times — between election days. Trying to predict who will excel in a White House race, 23 months in advance, is folly. It’s why I keep making the case to take these kinds of surveys with a grain of salt.Florida Gov.
If Trump were in a strong political position, beloved by his party’s core supporters, we’d expect to see himin polls like these. No one else, especially unannounced prospective candidates, should be anywhere close. And yet, here we are, seeing independent data from credible polling outlets, showing Trump struggling — badly.
This isn’t a prediction that the Republican will necessarily lose, but there’s no denying the fact that the launch of his 2024 candidacy has been a disaster, and he’s confronting a political problem he appears ill-equipped to fix.
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