One analyst crunched the numbers to find plenty of promise: He figures Masayoshi Son has already made close to US$9 billion on paper.
Monitors display Uber Technologies Inc signage in front of Morgan Stanley headquarters in New York.
SoftBank’s stakes in Uber, China’s Didi Chuxing, Southeast Asia’s Grab and India’s Ola are worth between US$22.1 billion and US$26.5 billion, according to Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. The calculation is part of a 27-page report issued on Wednesday and is based on the price-to-sales valuations of Uber and rival Lyft Inc.
A shift from the current driver-for-hire model to fully autonomous vehicles could quadruple the industry’s revenues, while cutting costs in half and pushing up the value of the ride-hailing portfolio to between US$240 billion and US$430 billion by 2030, Lane projects. That implies an annualised return between 24% and 30% over the next 12 years. The estimates don’t include SoftBank’s stake in Cruise and the reported investment in Uber’s own autonomous unit.
At an earnings briefing in February, Son indicated that ride-hailing is a long-haul bet. He showed a black-and-white photo of New York’s Fifth Avenue in 1900, thronged with horse-drawn carriages. Another photo of the same street 13 years later was full of Henry Ford’s Model Ts.
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