“You put a red line on a map, and you understand that means lots of people are going to be killed and their houses destroyed” – geologist John McCloskey on the painful science of earthquake forecasting
, estimates that the method has been used in 30,000 papers to explain two-thirds of our planet’s recent aftershocks and progressive main shocks. “That tells us this is not the only game in town,” Stein says. “Faults are grungy, messy features and they don’t behave as we would like them to.”
Not long ago, seismologists thought they might be able to predict some quakes days or hours before they strike. Such hopes emerged from Parkfield, California, where earthquakes had rocked a small part of the San Andreas fault nearly every 22 years. Each of these quakes followed a smaller shock to the north. And hours before a strong quake near Parkfield in 1966, precursory movement had broken an irrigation pipeline that crossed the fault.
Even though geoscientists can’t predict quakes with any precision, many researchers say it is possible to prevent much of the death and destruction from these natural disasters.
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