Wall Street: Soaring neutral rate to hurt Nasdaq, Treasuries,the Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey shows

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Wall Street: Soaring neutral rate to hurt Nasdaq, Treasuries,the Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey shows
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More than 60 per cent of participants in to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey say that both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are overvalued.

The interest rate that neither spurs nor slows the US economy has at least doubled in the aftermath of the pandemic, handing investors a reason to be nervous about buying bonds or stocks, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.

Both asset classes have been getting battered of late as investors have absorbed the prospect of an extended period of higher interest rates. Ten-year Treasury yields briefly eclipsed 5 per cent last week for the first time since 2007, fuelling concern over technology-stock valuations in particular. Meanwhile, both the S&P 500 Index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 entered a correction.

The Nasdaq 100 will decline by as much as 10 per cent this quarter, according to 45 per cent of respondents. A fifth say it will slump more than that. Earlier in the year, enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence spurred investors to overlook rising interest rates, propelling the Nasdaq 100 about 35 per cent higher in the first three quarters of the year. It’s now on track for its third straight monthly decline, something it hasn’t done in more than a year.

A narrow majority of survey respondents are pessimistic about the implications of higher Treasury yields. This group projects that if yields stay above 5 per cent for a quarter or longer, they would cause a hard landing, a scenario where the Fed’s actions to tame inflation trigger a recession. Some 47 per cent say the economy would take it in stride.

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