Just three MPs on Labor’s frontbench can claim majority support for the Voice in their electorates a week out from the referendum vote.
Indigenous Affairs Minister Linda Burney and a string of high-profile Labor MPs have failed to convince a majority of voters in their electorates to vote Yes in the Voice referendum, according to polling that signals many progressive seats are on track to vote No.
“What helps a nation grow and expand and be better is hope and optimism and a sense of seizing the moment of the future. I think also people will ask themselves after 122 years, if not now, when? The Focaldata polling focused on individual seats, and indicated Labor’s message for constitutional change was failing to land even in electorates held by some of its highest profile MPs.In deputy prime minister Richard Marles’ electorate of Corio just south of Melbourne, support for the No vote sat at 57 per cent, while in Mark Dreyfus’ seat of Isaacs on Melbourne’s south-eastern shore known as the “sandbelt”, the No vote also remained ahead on 61 per cent.
But the nature of the technique, called multi-level regression and post-stratification, had missed demographic nuances including education levels and ethnic make-up of regional seats which would alter how they perform. “But there are nuances ... there’s a big difference between attitudes in established migrant communities and those that came over within the last 20 years ... the older ones are more likely to vote No, the more recent groups are more likely to vote Yes.”
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