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A forest ranger looks on as a wild forest fire rages near the Moroccan city of Ksar el-Kebir in the Larache region on July 15, 2022. This year’s monsoon is harsh by historical standards and marked the end of a long-running, if patchy, drought across South and mainland Southeast Asia with record high heat and rains attributed to climate change and excess energy in the atmosphere caused by man-made pollution.
As science improves, so does forecasting. In particular, two complex weather patterns — the Indian Ocean Dipole and its Pacific equivalent, El Nino — respond to surface temperatures across both oceans and have been a backdrop to dire warnings issued over the last two decades. Oceans suck up 90 percent of rising greenhouse gas emissions and this year began with the Atlantic Nino notching up record heat. Then came the hottest April on record in South and Southeast Asia where temperatures often exceeded 40 degrees Celsius.
A scientific study by World Weather Attribution shortly after Hurricane Helene struck the United States found that human-caused climate change had boosted rainfall by about 10 percent and intensified its winds by more than 11 percent. Climate change has also aided and abetted the notorious Southeast Asian haze, which began innocently with farmers deploying their usual slash-and-burn technique for the annual planting of crops in Indonesia but has escalated, spreading to forests and, importantly, peat bogs.
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