US Nonfarm Payrolls February Preview: Fed policy runs through Kyiv by josephtrevisani forex trading
Unemployment rate to drop to 3.9% from 4%, underemployment to rise to 7.2% from 7.1%.Federal Reserve rate policy constrained by evolving economic reactions to the Ukraine war.
February’s jobs numbers, however, tell us next to nothing about the economic changes that may be wrought by the Ukraine war. The US recovery, barrelling along at 7.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021, could see a swift application of brakes if soaring inflation inhibits consumer spending and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive control policy is blunted by economic and political distress.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey recorded 10.925 million unfilled positions in December. From June 2020 through year end JOLTS has averaged 10.758 million openings per month. Any one of those months is a record, seven in a row with many more to come, is a new and largely unexplained phenomenon for the US economy. Before the pandemic lockdown in March 2020, the highest single month had been 7.574 million in November 2018.
Since the first week of February when the Ukrainian situation began to gather full attention, the S&P 500 has lost about 6% . The 67.68 point loss on Tuesday brought the index into correction, just over 10% down from its January 3 record of 4,796.56. The Dow is off about 6.9% from its February high and 9.5% from its all-time close of 36,799.65 on January 4.
The US dollar has also been the currency of choice for protection. The EUR/USD has shed 1.6% from its open at 1.1305 on the morning of the invasion and 2.9% from its February 4 high of 1.1455., grounded by the yen’s own safety trade, was unchanged over the four sessions, opening on February 24 at 115.00 and at 115.04 on March 2. The sterling is down 1.6% from its February 24 start. Only the USD/CAD, buoyed by the ascent of oil has lost points, though minimally. It began at 1.
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