The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), will be released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on
Friday, October 27 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of six major banks. Headline is expected at 3.4% year-on-year vs. 3.5% in August. Meanwhile, Core PCEis seen at 3.7% YoY vs. the prior release of 3.9%. On a monthly basis, it is expected to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.1%. ING Energy prices will lift the headline rate and we are not as optimistic that core inflation will rise just 0.2% MoM or 3.7% YoY as the market expects.
We project a slightly less robust PCE headline increase since the rent component that was up significantly in the CPI has less relative weighting in the PCE deflator. The projection, however, is razor thin, with a rounding down to 0.3%. Wells Fargo Factoring in our expectation for the headline and core PCE deflators to increase 0.3% during the month, real consumer spending likely rose around 0.2%. Citi Core PCE inflation should rise 0.28% MoM and 3.
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