Petrol prices are expected to have pushed consumer prices higher last month, though it’s unclear whether the report will have much impact on policymakers.
Here are what some economists and strategists are expecting:: “We estimate that core inflation remained close to the 0.2 per cent month-over-month mark, increasing 0.18 per cent for the month in August .
Morgan Stanley also said: “The main category driving disinflation in August is core goods, where we expect another negative print.”: “Core-price inflation likely remained the same in August, printing a third straight 0.2 per cent m/m gain . Goods inflation was likely a big factor to the downside again, with shelter prices remaining a key wildcard . Firming gas prices will drive non-core inflation higher. Our m/m forecasts imply 3.6 per cent/4.3 per cent y/y for total/core prices.
“Despite recent progress in core inflation, it strikes us as unlikely that the Fed will be able to meet its 2 per cent target on abasis over the next couple of quarters. Although we expect core goods prices declined in August, the disinflationary momentum from normalising commodity prices is set to fade. The drag from health insurance prices will also likely come to an end in October, setting up core inflation for an acceleration in Q4.
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