NOAA said the impacts primarily stem from increased vertical wind shear, which can prevent tropical cyclones from forming and strengthening. FOX13
, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic now has record warm sea surface temperatures. El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear," authors of the updated CSU Atlantic hurricane season outlook stated.
CSU calculated the probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline to be at 50% - greater than the typical 43% average.El Niño to play a reduced role in season impacts, the Atlantic basin typically sees below-normal activity due to vertical wind shear and cooler water temperatures.
Both components can prevent tropical cyclones from forming and strengthening, but the CSU team says record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic should be sufficient enough to counteract any hostilities produced by El Niño. , but the event appeared to take a break from intensifying into a staunch pattern during the early summer."I do expect El Niño will continue to intensify over the rest of the/fall, as it looks like we will get additional low-level westerly wind anomalies across the tropical Pacific," said Philip Klotzbach, lead author of the outlook.
The hurricane expert stated several times during the latest tropical season update that due to the weather patterns at play there is greater-than-normal uncertainty with the forecast.
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