Studios look set to gain the upper hand in skirmishes with exhibition over windowing as trends during the COVID-19 pandemic extend into the future with mid-range films generating the $50-$100 milli…
Studios look set to gain the upper hand in skirmishes with exhibition over windowing as trends during the COVID-19 pandemic extend into the future with mid-range films generating the $50-$100 million range the most at risk of dwindling theatrical runs, according to a leading Wall Street analyst.
As the pandemic shuttered theaters across the country, Fishman anticipates domestic box office plunging 50% in 2020 year-on-year assuming studios stick to current release dates. He predicts a rebound next year to $9.7 billion — still down 15% from 2019 levels and 13% lower than his pre-COVID estimate of over $11 billion. The 2020 numbers are very much a work in progress, he cautioned, given that some major cities have’t yet set reopening dates and consumer behavior variables.
If this is to be, a key question is what share of PVOD revenues exhibitors will end up capturing to help offset the cannibalized box offic. Fishman initially expects exhibitors’ could end up getting between 10-20% of PVOD revenues — depending on their willingness to allow studios to push forward with this new window and how many studios are negotiating against them initially.was always the lone studio fully committed to the theatrical window.
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