Seventeen months into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are winning a key battle—the counterbattery battle.
That’s a three-to-one loss ratio in Ukraine’s favor. It’s worth noting that the Ukrainians more than have made good their losses by acquiring, from their foreign allies, more than a thousand howitzers and rocket-launchers. Both sides of course also have dragged hundreds of older guns and launchersAll that is to say that, on June 4—the first day of Ukraine’s counteroffensive—Kyiv on paper had no fewer than 2,500 big guns and launchers. Moscow had around 4,500.
. Which is why Ukraine’s steady destruction of Russian howitzers and launchers is so encouraging to proponents of a free Ukraine.the Ukrainians gradually are winning the counterbattery fight should be obvious. Huge consignments of Western-made systems—which often are more reliable, more accurate and farther-firing than Soviet-style systems are—radically have improved Ukraine’s 13 artillery and rocket brigades.
Perhaps most importantly, the Ukrainians have received from Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States scores of counterbattery radars that spot incoming artillery shells and rockets, pinpoint the source and cue friendly howitzers and launchers to fire back. The radars, working in conjunction with small drones, make it very dangerous for Russian gunners to do their work. They have to shoot then scoot—fast—to have any chance of surviving Ukrainian counterbattery fire.The Russian army began the wider war with the superior artillery fire-control system. A year later, the advantage had flipped to thearmy. It should have been obvious, as early as this spring, that the Russians were in trouble.
The same command now oversees the main axes of the southern counteroffensive. The same axes where the Russians now are losing four times as many artillery pieces as the Ukrainians are.
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