Ukraine’s long and winding road to victory just got a lot longer and deadlier.
At a multinational summit on Ukraine in Germany last week, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley made it clear that the Biden administration’s real Machiavellian goal is not for Ukraine to win, but for Russia to be continually weakened in a long, drawn-out war. Milley also asserted the war would likely"end in negotiation" and not decisively on the frontlines.
Milley is already 0–2 on Afghanistan and Ukraine in his battlefield predictions. Unless he convinces Biden to change course, he will likely extend his losing streak to three. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is committed to winning, even if Biden is not. Anything short of total restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity is a non-starter for Kyiv.
It could be that Washington is increasingly afraid of what a post-Putin Russia will look like. It may be in Biden’s calculus that it is better to keep a weakened Putin in power versus risking the aftermath.
Notwithstanding legitimate and exigent concerns as to what a Russian civil war would mean in terms of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, whether Russia loses or is simply weakened over a prolonged state of war in Ukraine is unlikely to be determinative of whether Putin survives or not. Both end states risk Russian civil war.
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