Many signs now hint that the economy is slowing sharply, and that if the Federal Reserve sticks to its policy of raising interest rates it will likely bring about the recession it says it wants to avoid.
since 1945, and many countries have been recording inflation rates not seen in thirty years, so it’s hardly surprising that the economic picture is blurred. Since the coronavirus started to spread, in 2020, some long-standing economic relationships have broken down. Other, new trends have emerged, and they could turn out to be temporary. But, in looking through this haze of conflicting data, two things stand out.
To be sure, there is still a heated discussion about how much these measures, particularly the American Rescue Plan Act, which a Democratic Congress passed in March, 2021, may have contributed to the surge in inflation that the economy experienced in 2021 and 2022, as opposed to snarls in global supply chains and other challenges prompted by the pandemic.
Another thing to note: the G.D.P. report is backward-looking. It doesn’t necessarily point to where things are heading. On Friday, a separate Commerce Department report said that in December consumer spending fell a bit compared to the previous month, a sign that economic growth was weakening toward the end of the fourth quarter. Earlier this week, the Conference Board released its latest, which, in contrast to the G.D.P.
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