The resurgence of the coronavirus is raising the odds of a double-dip recession.
President Trump still has a chance at reelection, but it’s contingent on a quick economic recovery and the containment of the coronavirus. Both may be slipping away.
This is precisely how a double-dip recession could occur, according to forecasting firm IHS Markit. Until recently, IHS thought the economy had bottomed out in April, with a robust recovery likely this summer and fall—provided coronavirus cases declined and stayed in check. Reimposing closuresAs Covid rises, the economy sinks. Governors have no choice but to close more businesses as infections spread, if for no other reason than to spare hospitals and their workers. Even if governors didn’t force closures, many consumers would know there’s a problem and lock themselves down at home until it seemed safer to go out. Others are simply foolish, gathering in crowds without masks or other protections, as if invulnerable to a microscopic assailant they can’t see.
If that unfolds, the timing would obviously be terrible for Trump. Voters would be reeling from mounting unemployment and renewed public health fears just as they head to the polls on Nov. 3. No president in modern times has won reelection in the midst or immediate aftermath of a recession, and there’s no reason to think Trump would be an exception.
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