Analysis: Reeling from his failure to cut a deal with Kim Jong Un, will the president end his pointless dispute with Beijing?
So it is with the yearlong China-U.S. trade war, which now appears to be in its final stages. Tariffs will be lifted, Beijing will promise to buy more American goods and take a harder stance on technology transfers and industrial espionage, and Trump will declare victory.Yet any victory will be Pyrrhic, at best. The China trade war has been both phony and costly—managing to unsettle the economies of the United States, China and the region.
In this phony war, the rhetoric has been much more substantial than the reality. Yes, there are stories galore of how these tariffs are hurting the Chinese, hurting American soybean farmers whose exports to China have plummeted, and undermining Xi’s iron grip on power. No doubt, the very fact of tariffs on a broad spectrum of goods has unsettled the relationship and created tremors in China as people there assess the possible consequences of a real economic rupture.
And what’s more, the tariffs have dented overall U.S.-China trade activity barely at all, according to theof the U.S. government. The run-rate for U.S. imports of Chinese goods—the ones Trump promised would soon be made once again in the United States—has remained fairly consistent. The U.S. trade deficit with China, which defenders of the trade war use as Exhibit A to prove that something has to be done, has actuallyin the past months. That’s because U.S.
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