Donald Trump’s path to the GOP nomination seems inevitable, but voters shouldn't be surprised if the former president “gets ghosted,” writes mmckinnon.
’s path to the GOP nomination, many believe, seems inevitable. But I see ghosts. Ghost voters, that is. Voters who appear to be for Trump but will actuallyJack Smith
dropped his mighty prosecutorial hammer last week, which at the very least further complicates an already fraught legal battleground for Trump. The question is: How, despite all the sound and fury, will this change the political calculus for the former guy? The conventional wisdom is: not much. If past is prologue, Trump’s support will only strengthen within his base in the face of further indictments. But even if that happens, I’m not feeling it for the long term. Because it can’t be helpful to his general election prospects. Because crucial swing and independent voters—the portion of the electorate that will turn the tide in this race—are more likely to view Trump’s actions asI think there’s another possibility as well.
Moreover, Trump’s campaign coffers may possess that phantom aspect as well. Yes, he is pulling in serious dollars. But he may well beto help in his multifront legal defense. And once the primary season gets into full swing, he may lack the financial firepower to compete in a serious way by mustering the staffing, ads, rallies, retail campaigning, and online blasts necessary to provide stability and lasso on-the-fence voters.
Iowa will be everything. If Trump wins, it will be over. If he loses, it’s a whole new ball game. Iowa, famously, can change dramatically within weeks or even days of the election. And folks, there are still five
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