During a recent campaign rally, former President Donald Trump amplified a growing argument among some Republicans that f
It’s common for the metric Trump used to show a large decline in jobs during the year’s first two months, because it is not adjusted in a way that smooths out regular seasonal cycles of employment.
Although the household survey also produces a raw number for people who are currently employed, economists consider this number inferior to the one from a different federal survey that asks businesses about the workers they employ. Also, the household survey has a significantly higher margin of error because it’s
A recurring pattern in the native-born and foreign born employment data is that employment usually falls during the year’s first two months. One reason is that workers hired for the year-end holiday season leave their jobs. Another is that construction projects slow during winter’s depths. Also, years when Biden was president account for two of the five instances since 2008 when native-born employment bucked the historical trend and rose in January and February.
Economists say the survey Trump used for measuring raw changes in employment isn’t the most accurate. It’s common for this metric to show a large decline in jobs during the first two months of the year, because the statistic is not adjusted for regular seasonal cycles of employment.