U.S. President Donald Trump may have to choose between U.S. stock markets and hampering the Chinese economy enough to make Beijing bend on the ongoing trade dispute.
"Encouraged by a strong US economy, Trump is now ready to bring that leverage to bear at a critical time and will almost certainly follow through on his threat this week," Hirson added in a note to clients. "It would take a desperate move by Beijing to prevent it, which we believe is not forthcoming."a planned trip to the U.S. this week for further negotiations"The greatest risk here will be political. China won't want to be seen as under duress ...
"The Chinese economy did surprisingly well in March, triggering a further rise of stock prices in the first four weeks of April as most March data were released around mid-April," Nomura economist Ting Lu and his team said in a Monday note. "The decision to announce the targeted RRR cut today was very likely made to offset the negative impact of the sudden shift in US-China trade talks.
"We believe a worsening of the trade conflict between the US and China will evoke another dovish turn by Beijing, especially on its monetary easing stance," the report said. As the world's second-largest economy and America's largest trade partner, the health of the Chinese economy has significant implications for global growth and markets.
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