Donald Trump is the most unpopular president since Gerald Ford to run for reelection—but his fate is hardly sealed. More, via FiveThirtyEight:
*Acceded to the presidency mid-term. In Johnson’s case, he took office mere weeks before the calendar turned to 1964, which also may have affected his numbers.However, working in Trump’s favor is the fact that past presidents’ approval ratings have tended to shift over the course of the year — and sometimes by Election Day bear very little resemblance to their Jan. 1 approval.
That puts Trump in an unenviable but ambiguous position for reelection. Since Dwight D. Eisenhower, presidents with a FiveThirtyEight average approval ratingof 48.4 percent or higher on Election Day all won their reelection campaigns, and presidents with a FiveThirtyEight average approval rating of 43.6 percent or lower all lost. If, in 10 months, Trump’s approval rating is still in the same range it has occupied for the past two years , he would obviously fit into the latter group.
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