There is a growing probability of soaking downpours, and possibly strong and coastal flooding, affecting parts of the East Coast next week.
Computer model projection for Monday afternoon showing the upper level low over the Midwest and the circulation of Tropical Storm Arthur just off the East Coast. By Matthew Cappucci and Matthew Cappucci Meteorologist, Capital Weather Gang Email Bio Follow Andrew Freedman Andrew Freedman Editor focusing on extreme weather, climate change, science and the environment.
Approaching upper-air systems lead to forecast uncertainty In addition to the intensification of the storm, forecast uncertainty is unusually high with Arthur since a broad area of circulation in the upper atmosphere, known as an upper level low, is set to dive south from the Midwest, to a position over the Appalachians early in the workweek. That pinwheeling low pressure system could affect Arthur in a variety of ways, ranging from shoving it out to sea to yanking it inland.
But if the trough of low pressure is delayed in its arrival, there would be a window of opportunity for Arthur to be captured and drawn westward by it — with moisture, if not the storm’s actual circulation, moving over land somewhere between the Outer Banks and New Jersey.
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