A trade agreement between the U.S. and China could be a strong catalyst for stocks, even though analysts say the market may have already priced in much of the gains.
told CNBC a deal is possible by Friday.
Besides trade in the coming week, investors are awaiting Friday's inflation data, important after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comment Wednesday that weak inflation is transitory, signaling the Fed does not now have to consider an interest rate cut. "The more robust the incoming data is, the more time the Fed has to sit and watch and evaluate whether inflation is rising this year in the manner that they think it is. If the labor market is good enough, it allows the Fed to be patient, and let this thing play out," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays. Gapen said if the data and inflation is instead weakening, the Fed would have to rethink its position later in the year.
But the reaction in the stock market may initially seem short-lived. "If the tariffs come off, you might get some readjustment to earnings expectations. So, you might have a nice couple of days, but I think it's three-quarters of the way priced in, maybe a little bit more," said Lori Calvasina, chief U.S. equities strategist at RBC.
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