In year-end meetings, top central banks may diverge over inflation, Omicron
Major central banks meet this week to assess risks from the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus even as they consider reducing emergency measures put in place nearly two years ago to fight the pandemic's economic toll.
Inflation, labor markets, and the link between the virus and economic performance are behaving differently across the major economies, setting up a potentially sharp divide over how central banks manage the coming stage of the pandemic. That stands in contrast to the synchronized and massive wave of support approved at the outset of the health crisis in the spring of 2020.
The ECB is likely to continue, and the Bank of Japan perhaps to commence, reducing some pandemic bond purchases at the margin, tentative steps reflecting the lower inflation and less fulsome economic rebounds in the eurozone and Japan. Interest rate increases for both are likely far off. The Fed, meanwhile, is likely to intensify a policy shift that could grow even sharper over the coming year and that arguably poses the biggest risk of a disruptive surprise.
The Fed this week is expected to speed up the end of its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities so that the bond-buying program is finished by March instead of June. But that decision may provide less of a signal about what's to come than how the Fed's new policy statement describes US inflation, how officials change their projections for interest rates and the economy, and in the tone Fed Chair Jerome Powell takes at his post-meeting news conference.
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