Australia's policymakers were in March bracing for up to 150,000 deaths, by late May Australia had just 103 deaths.
The Doherty Institute modelling, which showed how intensive care units would be quickly overwhelmed if social distancing measures were not implemented, made no reference to a potential 150,000 deaths or of 60 per cent of the population becoming infected.
While the Doherty Institute's modelling warned 70 per cent of patients needing an ICU bed could be turned away without social distancing measures, on Wednesday just 30 COVID-19 patients were in hospital, with six in intensive care and only three on ventilators - while the government has more than doubled the nation's ventilator capacity to 7500.
Professor Jodie McVernon from the Doherty Institute said the modelling was based on the assumption that "only fairly modest levels of social restriction to reduce transmission would be achievable in Australia".
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