This Game of Chance Could Curb COVID—or Send It Spiraling

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This Game of Chance Could Curb COVID—or Send It Spiraling
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It’s no surprise the novel coronavirus mutates. That’s what viruses do. The big question now is whether and when it happens again.

For the first two years of the pandemic, the virus mutated steadily, from the original form of SARS-CoV-2 to the Alpha variant then Delta.

It’s possible to formulate new vaccines and therapies, of course. But the pharmaceutical industry, and the government regulators who approve new medicines, move only so fast. Lately, COVID has been moving faster. The silver lining, if there is one, is that our natural antibodies from past infection have held up much better than our artificially induced antibodies.

Since the split from the Alpha variant, Omicron “is not mutating 30-percent faster,” Neher said. That might feel like cold comfort, considering the consequences as Omicron and its subvariants became dominant. More infections and reinfections. More immune escape. It’s a paradox. Widespread immunity protects us from one form of COVID, only to encourage the evolution of new and more dangerous forms of the disease. “We are now in an arms-race situation between mutations and immunity,” Michael said.

Expect good seasons and bad ones. The immunity arms race “will lead to oscillations in levels of immunity and hence to resurgences in infection going forward,” Michael said. How bad each surge gets, in terms of cases and deaths, “will be dictated by the rate of transmissibility and immune-evasiveness of emerging variants,” he added.

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