Think you know the presidential ‘type’? Think again | Opinion
On the eve of Presidents Day 2023, might history help guide our prediction on the most likely candidate to win the Oval Office Sweepstakes in 2024? Maybe. Maybe not.
The lesson deduced from Barack Obama’s two terms was that the White House doors were finally going to be wide open to citizens from the “global majority.” With the color barrier broken, it seemed the time would soon arrive for a woman to become commander in chief. That may turn out to be true someday. We sure hope so. But the wait continues.
Is there an explanation for why we can’t get a decent trend going for predicting future presidents? A few reasons come to mind, starting with an easy one: The United States is a big diverse country filled with people of high ambition who are wired to believe they can do better than whoever is currently in charge.
Plenty of variables frame every election, starting with the prevailing conditions in different parts of the country and the mood of voters in those places. Those variables shift from election to election and decade to decade.
In the decade before the Civil War, we had consecutive “doughface” presidents from Northern states who had no desire to disturb slavery in the South: Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce and James Buchanan. Then we had the uniquely great Abraham Lincoln followed by the uniquely incompetent Andrew Johnson.
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