Remainers and Leavers are as divided as ever, but agree that the government has made a mess of things
sides of the Brexit divide talk sanctimoniously of the “will of the people”. Leavers cite the 17.4m who voted to leave in June 2016, insisting too that most of them want a hard Brexit. Remainers claim opinion is changing, pointing to a march for a “people’s vote” in London on March 23rd that drew a purported 1m people, and a petition to revoke Article 50 which has attracted 6m signatories.
In truth, the will of the people is decidedly muddy, declares Sir John Curtice in his latest report for NatCen Social Research, based on survey data collected in early February. Since the autumn of 2016 NatCen has polled the same panel of voters, who like the country as a whole were divided in the referendum by 52% to 48% in favour of Leave.The most striking finding is how gloomy both sides have become. Among both Leavers and Remainers, only 6% now think that Britain will get a good Brexit deal.
Might voters warm to a different deal from the one negotiated by Mrs May? NatCen finds almost 60% of voters ready to accept free movement of people from thein exchange for free access to its single market. That seems to point to support for a Norway-style soft Brexit, one of the choices forYet Sir John is cautious about the chimera of a unifying soft Brexit.
What if there were another referendum? NatCen suggests that a re-run would produce a 55-45% Remain majority. Given the chaos in Parliament, that margin may even have risen since February. But Sir John warns against being too certain of the result. After all, most polls in 2016 suggested Remain would win."The elusive will"
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