Coronavirus: Is the UK in a better position than we think?
We had, concluded chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty, reached the limits of lifting lockdown.But is the situation really as bad as it seems?It was one of the more curious aspects of last week's warnings that the government seemed so ready to embrace the concept that infection rates were on the up.
But there have to be heavy caveats around these findings - they are based on just 24 positive cases among nearly 30,000 people over the course of two weeks. Drawing conclusions from such smaller numbers is fraught with difficulties. This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.
This certainly seems to be poor, but once you include the so-called complex cases passed on to local teams, incorporating council staff and regional Public Health England teams, performance rises to over three-quarters.What is more, the irony with the term"complex cases" is that they are actually often easier to contact because they are the ones based in prisons, care homes and schools.
The ONS programme shows there are likely to be many people who are not getting a test when they are infected.Getty Images It gives the impression the infection is raging in these areas when what is really happening - with the exception of Leicester - is that action is being taken early to prevent the virus spiralling out of control.
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