Experts from Goldman Sachs lay out a trading strategy for investors hoping to withstand the volatility set to hit markets over the next few weeks.
Yes, it was Trump's pair of Sunday tweets that sent US stock futures tumbling overnight and
during regular trading on Monday. But signals in the days leading up laid a series of bearish breadcrumbs that went largely ignored.reached a fresh record high last week, and ended Friday less than one point from that lofty summit. That, combined with widespread forecasts that profit growth has peaked for the year, already had stocks in a precarious position.
Goldman points to the fact that the ongoing equity expansion — which has been characterized by cyclical outperformance — has been unique because so-called value stocks haven't been involved. Normally, when economically sensitive areas of the market soar, value benefits from a"catch up" trade. But that hasn't been the case.
"Given the unrelenting nature of this rally, we think the market is vulnerable to a near-term pullback should events not proceed according to 'the script,'" Emanuel said, effectively foreshadowing the negative impact of Trump's trade tweets.So now that we've gotten a slight sell-off, which — as Emanuel mentions — should theoretically create some market opportunities, what's an investor to do? Goldman has a few ideas.
To that end, Goldman has identified stocks that rank in the top 20% of their sectors for sales and earnings growth, but are not in the top quintile on a valuation basis. The firm notes that this strategy has already been beating the broader market so far in 2019.
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