The State Of The Polls, 2019

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The State Of The Polls, 2019
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Polls just had one of their best election cycles, ever—but challenges abound in the industry. via FiveThirtyEight

Averages are weighted by the square root of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. Polls that are banned by FiveThirtyEight because we know or suspect they faked data are excluded from the analysis.

Combining all different types of elections together, we find that polls from 2017 onward have been associated with an average error of 5.0 points, which is considerably better than the 6.7-point average for 2015-16, and the best in any election cycle since 2003-04.

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