OPINION: Despite hyperbole on the night, it’s clear that this was not a Labor landslide. Here’s three lessons from the data.
Now that the dust has settled on the NSW state election, the inevitable post-election debate about what happened and why has started.
In fact, the Coalition today will likely have more seats than they did when they were last in opposition under Barry O’Farrell, and from that position they went on to win the 2011 election. Seats where no Coalition MP stood had a swing against them of almost 10 per cent. Where an MP stood for their first re-election contest the average swing against was just 2.7 per cent.
Seats like Riverstone, South Coast, Monaro and Wakehurst, and perhaps others, could have been held by the Coalition, had MPs who started the parliament chosen to stand again.Liberal candidate for Vaucluse Kellie Sloane appeared alongside Premier Dominic Perrottet.The Liberal Party’s ongoing saga about candidate selection in NSW has been a compelling drama.
All the evidence from recent federal and state elections in NSW suggests that successful candidates need to have the right communication skills and have enough time to engage with voters in their electorate.they’ve knocked a single door.Female Coalition candidates performed better on average than their male colleagues, particularly against teal opponents. The state-wide swing against male Coalition candidates was around 6.5 per cent, compared to just 5.9 per cent where Coalition women stood.
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