Even in this eventful week, nothing came close to matching the perilous significance of the unprecedented air strikes between Pakistan and India, escalating the risk of war between two nuclear powers.
Even in this eventful week, nothing came close to matching the perilous significance of the unprecedented airstrikes between Pakistan and India, escalating the risk of war between two nuclear powers.
"The escalation ladder … between these two nuclear-armed neighbors remains very steep," warned the Atlantic Council's Shuja Nawaz. Given both sides' standoff weapons that can be launched from air platforms and given increased talk of using miniaturized tactical nuclear weapons, Nawaz saw a risk that"a full-scale war, involving dozens of nuclear weapons, could engulf the subcontinent with grave consequences for the whole region and the world.
Beyond that, a hardening of politics in India and Pakistan's inability to seriously take on jihadi terrorist groups operating from its territory contribute to a combustive mix that won't go away even after India's national elections in April.
Whatever the truth, Indian jets had penetrated Pakistani territory apparently undetected, executing an assault within 60 miles of the country's capital, Islamabad. The following day, Pakistani aircraft struck back at several sites in Indian-administered Kashmir, without giving too many details. In the air fight that followed, as Indian aircraft apparently gave chase, both sides claim to have shot down each other's aircraft.
There's a logic that argues that all those nuclear weapons are a stabilizing factor. Under such a nuclear overhang, the argument goes that both sides limit just how far they will go in a conventional war because the danger of a devastating nuclear exchange deters them from doing so. This argument continues that two nuclear-armed states have never gone to war with each other.
Sometimes it takes a scare of the sort this past week has brought to prompt reasonable actors to take long-required steps toward reducing regional tensions. With its recently deepened relations with Pakistan, China could also play a useful role, starting by lifting its veto at the UN Security Council so that the Pakistan-based JeM can be designated as a terrorist organization.
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