The global economic outlook is getting cloudier, not clearer

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The global economic outlook is getting cloudier, not clearer
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Panic-selling and waiting for certainty to return is akin to selling low and buying high; by the time the clouds have lifted markets have typically already bounced back strongly. Moneyweb Markets

Welcome to September, the start of spring in the southern hemisphere but the start of autumn in the north. While August was named after the first Roman emperor Augustus, September refers to the Latin word for ‘seven’. In the old Roman calendar, it was the seventh month. In the modern Gregorian calendar, it is the ninth month, but the name never changed. If that sounds a bit confusing, perhaps it is apt.

At the end of August, the year-to-date dollar returns for the main global benchmarks for bonds, equities and listed property were -16%, -18% and -20% respectively. There hasn’t been anywhere for dollar-based investors to hide. Rand-based investors are somewhat better off. While SA equities are negative year-to-date, nominal bonds are marginally positive, while inflation-linked bonds are having a bumper year. It also helps that the rand has lost about 8% against the dollar this year.

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