The first-round pairing has produced a number of surprises in recent years. Will that trend continue in 2019?
Can Saint Mary’s join the club upset-minded No. 11 seeds? By Matt Bonesteel Matt Bonesteel Reporter for the Early Lead Email Bio Follow March 19 at 11:25 AM There was a time, not too long ago, when picking a No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed in the first round of the NCAA tournament was the thing to do. In a three-tournament stretch from 2012 to 2014, No. 12 seeds went 8-4 against No. 5 seeds, with less-glossy programs such as South Florida, then-relatively unknown VCU, Stephen F.
But upset-seekers need not look far down the seed line to find a pairing that has produced March Madness tumult. In the four tournaments that have been played since 2015, No. 11 seeds have gone 9-7 against No. 6 seeds. Last year, Loyola-Chicago defeated Miami to kick-start its crazy run to the Final Four, and three No. 11s won in both 2017 and 2016.So what about this year’s 6-11 games? Well, we only know two of the first-round matchups, as No.
Chances of an upset: Good, bordering on very good. All the Gaels did in the WCC tournament final was hold future No. 1 seed Gonzaga to just 47 points, 20 points below their previous season low. The defending national champion Wildcats are the only team in the tournament that shot more three-pointers than two-pointers this season, but Saint Mary’s finished the season ranked ninth nationally in opponents’ three-point rate . In other words, it doesn’t allow its opponents to shoot that many of them.
Chances of an upset: Less good. As Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch points out, the Buckeyes are 0-9 this season when allowing their opponent to have an offensive efficiency rating better than 105.1, and Cyclones have topped that number in 25 of their 34 games. Iowa State entered the Big 12 tournament amid reports of team disharmony and lost six of their past eight regular season games, but it rebounded to beat NCAA tournament teams Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas to win the conference crown.
John Feinstein: When you’re Colgate, there’s only one Adonal Foyle, and no shortcuts back to March Madness
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