A final ranking of the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in Tuesday's midterms. Plus, a look at the polling averages for each of the races, 5 days out.
Real Clear Politics polling average:as the Senate seat most likely to flip. The race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey represents Democrats' best pickup opportunity. Biden narrowly won the commonwealth in 2020, after Trump had carried it in 2016, making it a pivotal battleground for the midterms and the next presidential contest.
The good news for Fetterman, even as his own negatives have gone up, is that Oz's negatives remain relatively high17% of Republicans and more than half of independents had an unfavorable view of the celebrity surgeon in the Times surveyand the Democrat continues to outpace Oz on the question of which candidate understands the concerns of everyday Pennsylvanians, according to the Monmouth survey.
Masters may have gotten an assist Tuesday, when the libertarian nominee, who was pulling at 1% in the Times survey, dropped out. But with voters already voting, it's unclear how much of a difference the move will actually make. This is another state where the governor's race could affect the Senate contest since Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake is considered a much stronger candidate than Masters.
And yet, Sununu, who previously called Bolduc a"conspiracy theory type candidate," is now supporting the GOP nominee, who's repeatedly pushed election falsehoods. Bolduc also recently picked up an endorsement from Trump. Despite some Republicans coming to his side, both the Senate Leadership Fund and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have cut funding here as they've diverted resources to higher-priority races.
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