Premiums for physical barrels are surging, with supplies from the Middle East, Azerbaijan and even Russia commanding premiums as refiners clamber to make diesel.
As crude futures leap higher, traders and analysts are increasingly talking about when – not if – prices return to $US100 a barrel.
“Fundamentals are very, very strong right now,” said Amrita Sen, head of research at consultant Energy Aspects. “At this point it’s a short-term thing. I’m not saying it’s going to average above $US100, but could it go to $US100 for a bit? Absolutely yes.”The strength is being led by the physical markets.
It’s against that backdrop that even some of the market’s most bearish analysts are starting to concede that $US100 looks more likely, particularly given longstanding political risks in producers such as Libya and Nigeria. Those spikes are shifting the focus to demand and the impact on consuming nations. The Reserve Bank of India said Monday that crude oil above $US90 a barrel posed a new risk to global financial stability.
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